The year 2025 couldn’t be any more precarious for the global shipping industry, which is amidst a trade war. There are also major geopolitical shifts that threaten to redefine trade routes, and on top of that we have issues surrounding long-term investments, fuel choices, and regulations on carbon emissions being finalized by the International Maritime Organization (IMO). Finally, we have the drastic shakeups caused by Donald Trump’s policies. This year may well be one of the most consequential in maritime history. Perhaps the biggest trend within the shipping industry concerns the IMO’s continuous push for decarbonization. While no immediate overhaul is expected, the specifics of the regulatory framework will determine not only the direction of international shipping but also global capital flows and infrastructure investments tied to zero-carbon fuels. Final investment decisions, especially those involving green ammonia, methanol, or hydrogen, are contingent on regulatory certainty. Without it, voluntary decarbonization efforts risk becoming stranded assets, potentially derailing billions in private-sector investment. If the IMO delivers a robust, enforceable plan, it could usher in a wave of ‘fast followers’ who align with early movers. But a weak or fragmented agreement may push the industry toward a patchwork of regional rules, leading to inefficiencies and undermining the very concept of a globally harmonized maritime framework. Adding further turbulence to the shipping forecast is the second Trump presidency. Even before his inauguration, trade routes were adjusting in anticipation of renewed tariffs, sanctions, and a recalibrated US foreign policy. The return of Trump-era trade strategies could result in disrupted shipping lanes, increased compliance costs, and a chilling effect on global trade sentiment. In late April, we’re already seeing this prediction coming true and the effect on global trade is expected to be truly disastrous. We’re already seeing renewed volatility in the US–China relationship and a full-on economic cold war is unavoidable.